Computer technology transformation+policy promotion

As a typical upstream industry, the main demand source of the computer industry downstream is the informatization demand of the G end (government) and the B end (large and medium-sized enterprises), and the informatization demand of the G end and the B end is affected by technological change and policy promotion. Therefore, the logic of the continuous growth of the computer industry in the past 15 years is: on the one hand, policies accelerate the improvement of localization rate and informatization rate, on the other hand, technological change leads to new business models and market demand (such as Internet and cloud, of which Internet has been falsified 15 years later).

The introduction of national policies often has a certain periodicity, and each cycle has a direction supported by policy priorities. Although the development of technology is continuous, for the computer industry, the speed of technological change is slow and unintentional, often requiring a long time to form substantial breakthroughs. Therefore, the demand of the computer industry also forms a certain periodicity with the periodicity of policies and technology. The fundamental factor of demand side cyclical changes is the transformation of technology and industry, and the driving force and signal of market launch are policies. The variables of market fluctuations include the 3-8-year update and replacement cycle of products in various sub sectors.

In the past 15 years, the technological transformation of the computer industry has mainly gone through several major times, such as hardware popularization, software informatization rate improvement, Internet mobile Internet, cloud computing, and so on. In the next five to ten years, we expect that the focus of technological transformation will continue to iterate in the fields of 5G, AIOT, and artificial intelligence. Although the technological changes in the computer industry are slow and unintentional, each technological revolution can bring new business models and new demand spaces, which may trigger significant changes in the industry landscape and thus bring long-term investment opportunities.